Wembley looks like being an interesting event. RL will get more national press coverage than its had for a while, largely from Union writers deriding the appalling attendance and predicting our demise.



W***ers that they are, they'll not be entirely without a point. Something is definitely wrong with an empty stadium.



Anyone knows that attendances have a 'tipping point' effect where your own decision is dependent on the decision of others. In the past, I've taken non-RL fans to internationals. I simply wouldn't do it this time, because I'd be cringing with embarrassment with the small attendance.



But hang on, that's my fault, right?. By not going I'm just making it worse. True, and maybe if I were a better person I'd go anyway. Sorry, I'm too selfish when it comes to feeling embarrassed.



But like it or not, the herd mentality is critically important to (re-)building a market for international RL. Everyone wants to be part of a sell-out, it's frankly a better spectacle that way.



Nobody can ever get this perfect, but the overriding philosophy should *surely* be to aim for sell-outs, and therefore pick the venues based on what, at any particular time, is going to be a realistic sell-out.



We need to re-build the 'sell-out' for internationals by making sure that every match possible is played in front of a sell-out crowd. If thats 15k to begin with (or even 6k for Eng-Fra) , then so be it. Next time, you build on that sell-out atmosphere and the desire of those that missed out to see the next game, and shoot for 20, 25, etc. It maybe that once you sell out a 30k stadium with a close match and a feverish atmosphere you can rebuild enough excitement to make the leap to Wembley, Millenium, etc.



But right now, we're on the wrong side of a tipping point, where the bigger the stadium, the *less * people will go. In an self-sustaining downward spiral, people don't want to go because the crowd will be too small (relative to the venue), and by not going it gets worse, etc, etc. MM is the same.



It would be lovely if everyone got together and said "hang on, if we *all* go, it'll be great", but that's not how marketing to large groups of people works.



The opposite of the downward spiral is to pick venues which are going to be oversubscribed, say another 20% on top failing to get tickets to each game. Get the approach right and it doesn't take long to make the upward spiral equally self-sustaining.

Do you have any information on ticket sales for Wembley and the projected attendance that leads you to feel 'embarrassed' enough to not consider going? As far as I am aware, pre-sales are looking pretty positive. Have you just created yet another negative thread without any real justification or evidence?

I think the Wembley attendance will be close to a 4Ns record. If so, surely we're going in the right direction internationally?

They can't have sold 28,000 tickets yet as they've not sold out the sections that have been released.

So what would you consider a reasonable attendance for a sport that struggles to attend 70k supporters on any weekend of the season?

Enough information to bet you £100 its less than half full. If you win, send me a private message and I'll post you a cheque. I trust you to do the same if you accept.



Actually the thread is a positive suggestion about rebuilding the international game. The reason I'm currently negative about League in general is that too many people like you complacently think the game is in a good place. 'Talking the game up' is all well and good but acheives more or less nowt. Don't take that the wrong way, you seem to be involved in amateur RL (as I was), so at the personal level you're doing more for the game than most, including me now. My belief is that you deserve better people at the top.



If you want positivity, it's this: the fundamental product is so good, that run by experts, the game can move forward rapidly. You'd be amazed how quickly a better management team would turn things around. Seen it in business, it could happen in RL too.

Disagree. I would rather see a "half-full" Wembley (ie 45,000) than 6,000 at Leigh.

Had an e-mail from the RFL late last week (think it was Thursday) about the Wembley game saying that over 20k had aready been sold. Doesn't sound as if the sales are going that well.

Can't say I'm surprised really. I've seen next to no advertising for this game, especially in London, where it's taking place! If you don't follow RL, you wouldn't even know there's a match at Wembley.

In general terms, or right now? It general terms its not easy to say what's 'reasonable', because the two other examples one could look at ( football and RU ) give conflicting information. England RU is practically always a sell out (and could be twice over) despite the club game not having massive attendances, whereas, England football do generally fill (or thereabouts) Wembley, but relative to the size of the club game its not as if tickets are like gold dust.



I think its fantasy to expect to be anything like Union at international level, but I think it *is* a reasonable (but ambitious) target within 5 years to aim to fill Wembley or Old Trafford (say) for a GB-Aus game with a few people still looking for tickets. It's a target the RFL should set. However *today* its unreasonable, and therefore for the reasons stated, Wembley is an innappropriate venue. The problem is that the predicted lack of atmosphere itself causes less tickets to be sold, etc, etc. Yes, it's daft - the very reason people don't go is because people aren't going - crazy....but, it's precisely how the world works, and good marketing people understand this. Precisely for this reason, most of the clubs selling tickets for an upcoming game (in all sports) breathlessly announce 'tickets selling fast, get yours quick!' to encourage take-up, with the implied 'threat' that they'll run out soon. The problem is that the implied threat has to be at least credible for it to work. If I knew there were only 20,000 seats to watch a GB-Aus game, I'd be in much more of a hurry to get one, and then the whole thing becomes self-sustaining, as I ring around mates asking "have you got your ticket yet? hurry up!". No amount of 'tickets selling fast, get yours quick!' concerning Wembley is going to have people rushing to the phone, not this year anyway.



If my job description said "get 90,000 (paying) bums on seats for GB-Aus in 2016, and by the way, if you fail, you owe us back half your 6 figure salary" my tactics wouldn't be to play at Wembley every year trying to add a few numbers each time, but rather to play to sell-out crowds of, say 16000, 25000, 30000, 40000, 50000, 90000 over the 6 years, or something like that.



I firmly believe the best way to build attendance is to play at venues ever so slightly too small for the number of tickets you can sell, thus guaranteeing sell out crowds. It pains me to say it, but the atmosphere at some of Warrington's big games has been better than at the DW.



My gut feel, is that today, about 16K would give you an almost certain sell-out. It depends how much you want to risk having empty seats. At 16k I think the risk is low, at 25k I think its moderately high. This year, that's all I'm talking about with those numbers.

a) there will not be internationals v Aus in those years....



b) we've had a reasonably well supported 4N in which the games had 23k and 31k attending the two England v Aus games



c) we do not know the terms that the RFL have got Wembley on or the cost/availability of AN Other stadium



what i am sure of is that the RFL will have factored all that into their decision. maybe a 50k stadium for a double header might have been better

I'd rather see a busting Elland Road or KC or Halliwell than a half ful Wembley